Assessment of the evolution of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in Paraná
Main Article Content
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic was marked by great fear, as it was a new disease of which we had no knowledge of its effects and prevention methods. However, during this period,we also made significant advances in research across various fields, from studying the causes and effects of the disease to the development of vaccines. In this study, we focus on assessing the evolution (recovery/death) of COVID-19 inpatients, who were hospitalized in the state of Paraná, Brazil in the year of 2022. To achieve this, we analyzed data from the System of Epidemiological Surveillance of Influenza (SIVEP) which provides information about Brazilian patients hospitalized with severe acute respiratory syndrome, using several machine learning techniques that allowed us to relate the patient evolution to possible associated factors. Results showed that age, gender, education, and neurological disorder, among other factors, have significant impacts in the inpatients evolution. When predicting the patient outcome, we obtained an accuracy over 75%, which shows the efficiency of the models.
Article Details

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
References
Alyasseri, Z. A. A. et al. Review on COVID-19 diagnosis models based on machine learning and deep learning approaches. Expert systems 39, e12759 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1111/exsy.12759
Bala, P. K. Decision tree based demand forecasts for improving inventory performance in 2010 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (2010), 1926–1930. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/IEEM.2010.5674628
Barreto, T. d. O. et al. Artificial intelligence applied to analyzes during the pandemic: COVID-19 beds occupancy in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence 6, 1290022 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2023.1290022
Breiman, L., Friedman, J. H., Olshen, R. A. & Stone, C. J. Classification and regression trees (Routledge, 2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nmeth.4370
Chiu, C., Ku, Y., Lie, T. & Chen, Y. Internet auction fraud detection using social network analysis and classification tree approaches. International Journal of Electronic Commerce 15, 123–147 (2011). https://doi.org/10.2753/JEC1086-4415150306
Cortes, C. & Vapnik, V. Support-vector networks. Machine learning 20, 273–297 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00994018
DATASUS. SRAG 2021 e 2022 – Banco de Dados de Síndrome Respiratória Aguda Grave- Incluindo dados da COVID-19 https://opendatasus.saude.gov.br/dataset/srag-2021-e-2022. (accessed: 14.09.2022).
Duprat, I. P. & Melo, G. C. d. Análise de casos e óbitos pela COVID-19 em profissionais de enfermagem no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Saúde Ocupacional 45 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1590/2317-6369000018220
Galvão, M. H. R. & Roncalli, A. G. Fatores associados a maior risco de ocorrência de óbito por COVID-19: análise de sobrevivência com base em casos confirmados. Revista brasileira de epidemiologia 23 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-549720200106
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., Friedman, J. H. & Friedman, J. H. The elements of statistical learning:data mining, inference, and prediction (Springer, 2009).
Izbicki, R. & dos Santos, T. M. Aprendizado de máquina: uma abordagem estatística (Rafael Izbicki, 2020).
Jung, C., Excoffier, J.-B., Raphaël-Rousseau, M., Salaün-Penquer, N., Ortala, M. & Chouaid, C. Evolution of hospitalized patient characteristics through the first three COVID-19 waves in Paris area using machine learning analysis. Plos one 17, e0263266 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263266
Júnior, P. et al. Hospitalizações e óbitos por influenza no Brasil: uma estimativa de incidência no período de 2010 a 2016 (2019).
Lemon, S. C., Roy, J., Clark, M. A., Friedmann, P. D. & Rakowski, W. Classification and regression tree analysis in public health: methodological review and comparison with logistic regression. Annals of behavioral medicine 26, 172–181 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1207/S15324796ABM2603_02
Liaw, A. & Wiener, M. Classification and Regression by randomForest. R News 2, 18–22. https://CRAN.Rproject.org/doc/Rnews/ (2002).
Martínez-Camblor, P. & Pardo-Fernández, J. C. The Youden index in the generalized receiver operating characteristic curve context. The international journal of biostatistics 15, 20180060 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1515/ijb-2018-0060
McCullagh, P. & Nelder, J. A. Generalized linear models (Chapman & Hall, 1989).
Meyer, D., Dimitriadou, E., Hornik, K., Weingessel, A. & Leisch, F. e1071: Misc Functions of the Department of Statistics, Probability Theory Group (Formerly: E1071), TU Wien R package version 1.7-9 (2021). https://CRAN.Rproject.org/package=e1071.
Milborrow, S. rpart.plot: Plot ’rpart’ Models: An Enhanced Version of ’plot.rpart’ R package version 3.1.1 (2022). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rpart.plot.
Monard, M. C.&Baranauskas, J. A.Conceitos sobre aprendizado de máquina. Sistemas inteligentes- Fundamentos e aplicações 1, 32 (2003).
Morettin, P. A. & Singer, J. d. M. Estatística e ciência de dados (2022).
Oliveira, G. G. R. & Nobre, C. N. The Use of Machine Learning to Predict Hospitalization of Covid-19: A Case Study in the State of Minas Gerais-Brazil. in HEALTHINF (2023), 392–399.
Oliveira, M. M., de Melo, B. A. R. & Salci, M. A. Evaluation of survival time in people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Brazil. Acta Scientiarum. Health Sciences 46 (2024). http://dx.doi.org/10.4025/actascihealthsci.v45i1.63569
R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing R Foundation for Statistical
Computing (Vienna, Austria, 2021). https://www.R-project.org/.
Robin, X., Turck, N., Hainard, A., Tiberti, N., Lisacek, F., Sanchez, J.-C. & Müller, M. pROC: an open-source package for R and S+ to analyze and compare ROC curves. BMC Bioinformatics 12, 77 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2105-12-77
Sharma, A. K. & Sahni, S. A comparative study of classification algorithms for spam email data analysis. International Journal on Computer Science and Engineering 3, 1890–1895 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-2553-9_23
Sohil, F., Sohali, M. U. & Shabbir, J. An introduction to statistical learning with applications in R: by Gareth James, Daniela Witten, Trevor Hastie, and Robert Tibshirani, New York, Springer Science and Business Media, 2013, $41.98, eISBN: 978-1-4614-7137-7 2022.
Therneau, T. & Atkinson, B. rpart: Recursive Partitioning and Regression Trees R package version 4.1-15 (2019). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rpart.
WHO. World Health Organization Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard https://covid19.who.int/. Accessed: 2023-10-09.
Youden, W. J. Index for rating diagnostic tests. Cancer 3, 32–35 (1950). https://doi.org/10.1002/1097-0142(1950)3:1%3C32::aid-cncr2820030106%3E3.0.co;2-3