Taxa de mortalidade de casos por COVID-19: Uma an´alise bayesiana hier´arquica de pa´ıses em diferentes regi˜oes do mundo.
Conteúdo do artigo principal
Resumo
O objetivo principal deste estudo ´e a an´alise estat´ıstica de ´obitos/casos, definido epidemiologicamente como a taxa de fatalidade de caso (CFR) devido a novo coronav´ırus (SARS-CoV-2) para 113 pa´ıses em diferentes regi˜oes do mundo na presen¸ca de alguns fatores econˆomicos, fatores de sa´ude e sociais. O conjunto de dados considerado refere-se `as contagens di´arias acumuladas de casos notificados e ´obitos por um per´ıodo que vai do in´ıcio da pandemia do COVID-19 em cada pa´ıs at´e 25 de julho de 2020, o
per´ıodo final do dia de acompanhamento. Um modelo de regress˜ao log´ıstica binomial na presen¸ca de um efeito aleat´orio ´e assumido na an´alise de dados. A an´alise estat´ıstica ´e considerada sob uma abordagem Bayesiana hier´arquica usando m´etodos MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) para obter as estat´ısticas posteriores de interesse. Os resultados encontrados s˜ao interessantes considerando a interpreta¸c˜ao epidemiol´ogica, que pode ser de grande relevˆancia para epidemiologistas, autoridades de sa´ude e p´ublico em geral diante de uma pandemia complexa em todos os seus aspectos, como a que estamos vivenciando.
Detalhes do artigo
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