Analysis and Forecast for maximum monthly temperature of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) city for 2016
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Resumo
In this paper we compare the adjustment of additive models of Holt-Winters and SARIMA the series of monthly maximum temperature in the city of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), with data from January 2003 to December 2015. The additive Holt -Winters model was chosen because the seasonal character of series and SARIMA model by Akaike and Schwarz Information Criteria. The final model was chosen by indicators Mean Square Error indicators and Average Percentage Absolute, calculated by adjusting the historical data. Additionally, white noise characteristics of residuals were evaluated. The SARIMA model better adjusted and so was adopted for maximum monthly temperature forecast for the year 2016.
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