A chess rating system that accounts for draws and the advantage of playing as white
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Resumo
We introduce a chess rating system based on a preference model that includes an explicit parameter for draws, modified to account for the advantage of playing white. Heuristics derived from the conditional maxima of the hierarchical Bayesian model yield straightforward updating formulas. To illustrate the system’s potential for describing past performance and predicting game results, we present the updating process using a small synthetic example and data from a recent tournament featuring elite chess players. The results are discussed and compared with other systems. The proposed system is competitive both in describing past performance and in predicting outcomes. It is flexible and has the potential to be used either as a chess rating system or to evaluate other sports where draws are possible.
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